Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
